A new market assessment indicates that persistent supply-chain bottlenecks-ranging from module fabrication delays to shipyard backlogs-have postponed commissioning timelines for several U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities. Developers and analysts now expect critical projects such as Golden Pass and Plaquemines to begin operations later than previously scheduled, signaling potential impacts on global gas markets.
Background
U.S. LNG exports were set for substantial growth, with forecasts projecting a more than 60% increase in export capacity by 2026, largely due to projects in Louisiana and Texas. By 2026, U.S. LNG exports were expected to represent approximately 25% of global supply, up from 20% in 2022. Golden Pass and Plaquemines were central to this growth, with Golden Pass initially slated for commissioning between 2024 and 2026 and Plaquemines Phase 1 planned for late 2024 through 2026. Global LNG supply was forecast to grow 7% in 2026, with the U.S. responsible for nearly all sanctioned capacity additions. However, recent delays have undermined these expectations.
Details
Bloomberg reports that plants like Energia Costa Azul in Mexico exemplify the setbacks impacting regional LNG development, as it faces a year-long delay to mid-2026 due to fabrication and scheduling issues. Plaquemines LNG is now unlikely to ship before early 2026, shifting expectations for significant supply increases from 2025-2026 to 2027. Anne-Sophie Corbeau of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy noted that the previously comfortable supply-demand margin is now anticipated for 2027, rather than 2025 or 2026. Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3 is scheduled to begin at the end of this year but is not projected to reach full production until late 2025 or early 2026.
Commodity Insights data show Golden Pass delays have shifted anticipated first exports to the first quarter of 2026, with most U.S. LNG volume growth expected in the second half of that year. U.S. supply is projected to rise nearly 20% from Q3 to Q4 2026.
Kpler forecasts only modest global LNG supply growth in 2025, reflecting delays at Plaquemines and Golden Pass, and additional feed-gas disruptions at other global projects that collectively constrain supply into 2025.
Outlook
Delays at major U.S. export projects are expected to prolong supply tightness into 2026 and defer anticipated market easing until 2027. If developers cannot advance timelines or resolve logistical barriers, markets may experience continued price pressures and uncertainty for buyers. Operators, regulators, and port authorities may respond by increasing coordination on fabrication, port access, and permitting to support revised schedules. Future investments and contract structures are likely to reflect these ongoing supply-chain risks.
